The last few years have seen a wave of ups and downs for homebuyers and sellers–from homeowners who rode to the height of the sellers’ market during the pandemic to buyers who contended with the most historic market shift in 40 years. Coming into the traditionally busy spring selling season, it seems almost impossible to predict but there are early indications that 2024 could be the year of the “seller sweet spot.”
Since 2021, Opendoor has conducted quarterly surveys of over 4,000 prospective home sellers. Year-over-year quarterly tracking (beginning in March 2022) shows relatively little change in the number of sellers who were planning to sell within the year. We even saw a slight decrease in Q2.
However, in our December 2023 survey, we saw a substantial 18% increase in the number of homeowners ready to sell in the next 12 months–a higher proportion than we’ve seen in any quarter. We believe this big uptick in sentiment is a byproduct of two factors happening simultaneously: an eagerness to get back into the market and pent-up demand.
The real estate industry marks the Super Bowl as the official kickoff to the selling season, but data shows that sellers are actually more active a couple of months later, from April to June. This year we’re seeing that sellers may be coming off the sidelines even earlier: From 2022 to 2023, there’s a notable 7% increase in sellers who plan to sell in Q1.
Of course, there are multiple factors that go into picking the right time to sell. Some of the most obvious are: interest rates, housing affordability, and availability. What if just one of those big selling factors shifted to a more favorable condition? Our survey finds there’s an opportunity for a bigger shift in seller sentiment, too.
For the third time at the end of last year, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates and signaled the potential for a rate cut in 2024. Simultaneously, the 30-year fixed-rate peaked in October 2023 at 7.9% followed by a steady decline every week thereafter. We believe that as homeowners watched both rate indicators, seller sentiment started to rebound.
What needs to happen in order for homeowners to run, not walk to the selling starting line? Here are a few scenarios where if one or all were to occur, 2024 could truly be a seller’s sweet spot.
The 2024 selling season has the potential to break new ground. What remains to be seen is whether the selling sweet spot will align with lower mortgage rates, an influx of renters, silver tsunami movers, or more new-build incentives.
This article was written by Nick Boniakowski from Fortune and was legally licensed through the DiveMarketplace by Industry Dive. Please direct all licensing questions to legal@industrydive.com.